Mobility and transport economics in 2050: how will we travel on land, at sea and in the air?

What will mobility and transport look like in 2050? Will self-driving cars become the norm, will ships navigate autonomously, and will sustainable air travel become affordable? Three experts of the University of Antwerp share their vision about the future of mobility, transport and transport economics. From transport poverty and smart inland shipping to electric aviation and regional air drones: what challenges and opportunities lie ahead in the coming decades? Their conclusion: technological innovation offers many opportunities but also raises societal challenges such as transport poverty and affordability.

Mobility in 2050: from public transport to self-driving cars

Does the car still have a future within sustainable mobility? Can self-driving cars reduce transport poverty? Will commuting distances continue to increase? Professor of Mobility Dirk Lauwers (Faculty of Design Sciences) answers these questions and outlines several scenarios for the future of mobility.

Sustainable and liveable cities

Mobility policy focuses increasingly less on individual car ownership and use, and increasingly more on sustainable and smart mobility as well as liveable cities. Lauwers explains: ‘There are efforts to make traffic more environmentally friendly through green innovations like electric driving, or concepts like the 15-minute city. This is arranged in such a way that things like shops, parks and sports facilities are a fifteen-minute walk or bike ride from where everyone lives. Paris is strongly committed to this concept.’

Mobility is also becoming more subordinated to quality of life. ‘The recent interventions in Ghent and Mechelen should be seen in these contexts. Today’s citizens expect a healthy living environment, where children can play safely in the streets. This is a spearhead for local politicians.’ Finally, in certain cities, technological innovation is central to mobility planning. ‘You see this in San Francisco, where self-driving taxis adorn the streets. These are mostly innovative projects from the private sector, licensed by the state.’

A growing mobility divide between urban and rural areas

Whether Flemish mobility in 2050 will be especially sustainable, liveable or innovative is difficult to predict. According to Lauwers, the mobility gap between urban and rural areas is likely to widen further. ‘In cities, the share of cycling, walking and public transport is increasing, while elsewhere, the car remains dominant. Distances are too big and public transport is less developed there.’ 

Can self-driving cars reduce transport poverty?

This goes hand in hand with transport poverty. This means that people lack sufficient access to transport to participate fully in work, education, healthcare or social activities.

‘A lot of people don’t have a car or driving licence and have poor mobility or live in remote areas so that cycling or buses are not an alternative. They are confined to their homes. Any given day of the week, 25 percent of Flemish people do not leave their homes.’ A solution may lie in better public transport, but also in innovative technologies such as self-driving taxis. ‘These promise to become more accessible than car-sharing, because you don't need a driving licence. Fares will also be okay, particularly if you compare them to having your own car.’

While autonomous vehicles can bring people closer together, they may simultaneously cause us to drift apart. After all, with increasing and accessible car traffic, we are going to live further away from one another. ‘In Flanders, this means widespread ribbon development, which is a type of housing that, in turn, hampers smooth mobility. After all, the construction of good connecting roads for all road users is easier between well-defined residential areas, like in the Netherlands. Our ribbon development does not allow for the construction of safe cycle paths everywhere, unless you start expropriating front gardens.’

Will we commute even farther?

Finally, Lauwers discusses commuting, which accounts for a large part of our travel. ‘Most people want to commute for a maximum of an hour and a half a day. This has been the case for a long time. The invention of faster vehicles from the 1800s onwards, which include bikes, cars and trains, has not reduced our travel time, but increased our travel distance! We move around more and live further from our place of work.’

Train commuters in particular seem to be willing to tolerate slightly longer journeys, because they can read a book or do something else while travelling. Lauwers looks ahead to the travel experience of the future. ‘Soon, we’ll be able to watch movies in self-driving cars. Will we call that “me-time”? The less restrictive travel time feels, the more our spatial footprint will grow.’

Inland navigation in 2050: autonomous, smart and sustainable

Making inland navigation smarter and more sustainable  is the goal of Professor Peter Hellinckx (Faculty of Applied Engineering), who specialises in artificial intelligence. He investigates how AI, autonomous shipping, sustainable technological innovation and human expertise can make waterborne transport more efficient, safer and more environmentally friendly.

How will artificial intelligence transform inland navigation?

Hellinckx wants to use artificial intelligence to make a positive difference in society. He explains how automation can address the severe labour shortage in inland navigation: ‘There are fewer and fewer captains. Through autonomous or unmanned navigation – with human intervention – a captain can control one or more ships from land.' This innovation does not only reduce staff shortages, it also makes the sector more attractive: ‘Life on a ship is difficult to combine with having a family. The possibility of doing these jobs from a fixed location or even from your home would be a significant improvement in this respect.’

In addition, automation improves safety. ‘Most accidents in inland navigation are caused by human errors. Technology can solve this issue. Just think about navigation in difficult weather conditions: sonar systems, for example, can “see” perfectly in fog. Autonomous navigation systems can also process a lot of input: camera images, all kinds of sensory input... A captain who has to take all of those signals into account will get overwhelmed. An AI system won’t.’ 

Finally, technology can reduce costs: ‘AI systems can optimise routes for minimal energy consumption. And more autonomous ships, which require a smaller or even no crew, automatically have lower personnel costs.’ 

Fewer trucks thanks to smarter waterways

Smarter and more autonomous inland navigation could shift part of freight transport from road to water. Having less crew has another advantage, Hellinckx says: ‘Belgium has an extensive water infrastructure, which is now heavily underused. Current vessels are too big for many waterways. Ships without crew can be smaller and sail deeper inland. This way we can relieve road traffic: if we reach distribution centres by water, trucks are only needed for the “last mile”.’, says Hellinckx.

We’ll also be able to use human expertise better. After all, unmanned navigation won’t make shipping professionals redundant, Hellinckx stresses. They will, however, be deployed differently: ‘Their knowledge is super valuable for the systems we build. And it works two ways: they can also gather new insights from AI models. Compare it to chess, where top players learn new techniques from computers. That interaction between AI and human expertise will occur in navigation too!’

Towards climate-friendly shipping

Besides being more autonomous, navigation is also becoming more sustainable. ‘Which is necessary,’ says Hellinckx, ‘because the sector is responsible for three to six percent of global CO2 emissions.’ The optimal fuel is currently diesel, but alternatives are being explored. ‘Fully electric navigation is theoretically possible. However, long distances pose a problem: you have to recharge regularly. And shore power connections – plugging in on land – aren’t powerful enough for really large ships.’ 

That’s why Hellinckx thinks mixed systems are particularly promising. These could take the form of ships with different energy sources on board, such as batteries and an internal combustion engine. ‘Then you can navigate inland waterways electrically, so without CO2 emissions, and only switch to diesel on the high seas. Moreover, in such mixed systems, energy sources can be more easily replaced by newer ones when the time is right.’

Finally, Hellinckx points out that sustainable innovations are often less profitable or commercially viable. This is why he and his team are fully committed to “sustainability by design”. ‘By making new applications sustainable by default and at no added cost, the university is doing its bit for a thriving industry and planet!’

Aviation in 2050: electric aviation, hydrogen and new forms of air mobility

The aviation sector is undergoing a major transition. Professor of Aviation Economics Wouter Dewulf (Faculty of Business and Economics) explains how electric aviation, hydrogen technology and stricter climate regulations will shape the future of aviation and transport economics.

Electric aviation mainly suited for short distances

Kerosene, the traditional jet fuel, is getting competition from more ecological alternatives, although these aren’t always equally interesting from a financial point of view. ‘Firstly, you have electric aviation,’ Dewulf begins. ‘If the electricity is generated with natural energy, hardly any CO2 is emitted. However, by 2035 the maximum distance you can travel without recharging the battery will only be about 500 kilometres. Good for short flights to, say, London, but distant destinations won’t be commercially viable: nobody wants to make four stopovers.’

Can hydrogen replace kerosene?

One alternative is flying on hydrogen. ‘It's combustion only releases water vapour, no CO2. One drawback, however, is that hydrogen takes up much more space than kerosene. Too much to be stored in and between the wings.’ The solution? A new, more triangular aircraft design. ‘This is under development,’ says Dewulf, ‘But even those aircraft won't have room for a lot of fuel and a lot of passengers or cargo. That's why hydrogen aviation will be limited to medium distances for the time being.’

Finally, long-haul flights can also become more environmentally friendly if kerosene is made more sustainable. ‘You can create a fuel that’s completely synthetic, or that contains recycled CO2 from the air. Unfortunately, these are still very expensive processes.’ 

What will sustainable aviation mean for ticket prices?

Soon, the European Union will require a certain percentage (maxing out at 70% in 2050) of that renewable, more expensive fuel to be used in aircraft with internal combustion engines. In addition, airlines will have to pay environmental compensation costs for emissions of their intra-European flights. These are new regulations that will increase ticket prices, Dewulf says, although there will still be bargains: ‘Supply and demand always influence the price. An empty seat on the plane will still be sold at a discount rather than left empty.’